Monday Deep Stack on Stars
Finished 32, for a whopping payday of $64. That being said, I think it was the best I have played in a long time. I had a big stack for a lot of the tournament, and only losing a coin flip with great pot odds brought me down to average.
Here is my bustout hand...certainly more than one way to play this, although I am not too down on myself..
I have T65000, right around average. Blinds 750/15000. UTG +1, open limps (he did this a lot), and a player who had not been involved in too many hands raises to 4800. Both players have me covered. I am on the button with As Ks. I decided to flat call because of my superior position, although certainly a case can be made for a big raise here. In any event, the three of us take the flop which comes Qs Js 8d. Loose limper checks, and the tight raiser bets out 12K. He has about 65k behind. I think the only play for me here is to push, so I do. The first guy folds, and the raiser calls with Ad Qd. Unfortunately, I dont get there, and I go to bed.
Now obviously, in retrospect, a big raise preflop probably wins me a nice pot, but I still managed to get my money in with a decent overlay as a 55 percent favorite. Does anyone play this differently, and if so, why?
posted by Gabe @ 9:28 AM
7 Comments:
Although you have the nut flush draw, two overs, and a straight draw, I don't think pushing here is right.
First of all, you say the player who raised didn't play many pots, so you have to put him on a strong hand when he raises pf and then bets out on the flop. He has you covered, and against AQ on this flop you're a slight favorite, but do you really want to risk your whole stack as a slight favorite when you have a healthy stack? What did you put your opponent on when he led out?
Jodi,
Good point. I definitely didn't think he was bluffing when he led out, and i figured he had the exact hand he ended up having AQ (Of course the fact that he could have a stronger hand did cross my mind, and that leans even more to what you are saying). Do you flat call? I am getting 2-1, but i am less than 2-1 to make my hand on the turn, and more likely than not, I am going to be faced with a big bet on the turn as well.
The pot had 24K in it, i had approximately 60 left. Let's assume there is a 20% he folds to my reraise---that is a net gain in equity of 24K 20% of the time. Even though I think it is likey he calls, he also has a lot of chips, and might not want to play a big pot, so I don't think 20% fold equity is unreasonable.
Now let's say he calls 80 percent of the time. That time I am risking 60K to win 84K (his 60 plus the 24 in the pot) as either a small favorite (if he has AQ or KK), or a small dog to a set or AA). It is almost impossible for me to be anything more than a small underdog with my holding. For argument's sake, let's say I am 50/50 here.
So 20% of the time I will win 24K uncontested.
And 80% of the time, i will be risking 60K to win 84K (1.4 to 1 on my money), with a 50% chance of winning. So my expected profit here is 12K.
Putting it all together
80% at 12K, and 20% at 24K, gives me an expected value of 16.4K for pushing here.
I think it is a big enough positive EV situation, even though I still had a decent stack. And the times I do win this pot, i have a monster stack which I can then use to steal blinds mercilessly. I am curious to get more of your thoughts, though, as well as anyone else's.
The push was the correct play. If you flat call and the turn brings a brick, you're stuck looking at a large pot that you can't do much about because you've got nothing.
With this sort of draw - 2 overs, the nut flush and nut straight draw, you absolutely NEED to see the last two cards. One doesn't do anything for you because if it bricks, you can't call a large bet.
Additionally, the push gives you a lot of fold equity. You're probable a favorite going in here, but it isn't going to hurt to just pick the pot up right there. You push, he drops, you're that much closer to the goal of hitting.
This isn't the type of place where you need to pick a better spot - this late, if you pick up a huge pot, you're going to be in dominating position - and there isn't much of a better spot than that. You're ahead of anything other than a set here, and even against that, you've got a lot of outs.
Played ideally.
-Tripp
Played correctly after the preflop call. Definitely could have raised here, though I am not sure things would have gone any differently. Calling is absolutely wrong here as it doesn't give your opponent the chance to fold.
In a cash game this is a +EV move. But if you know he's going to call, you have 0 fold equity and you're essentially racing for all your chips. Yes, you have to win your races, but that's only when you have to race...
Thanks for the comments, everyone.
Anthony, I couldn't be sure he'd call, i thought it fairly likely, but as I said, he wasn't pot committed, so I had to factor in the possibility he would fold, plus the money in the pot. Still, a tough hand...
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